大家好，我是李梦龙
这几天的新闻头条都是被俄乌战争占据了。整个世界都在讨论这场战争。
今天我们来解读一下俄乌战争对Etsy卖家们的影响。
1.0 卖家减少，竞争减少
我查了一下这两个这国家在etsy上开店的卖家数量:
Russia: 46,951 shops ,整个ETSY卖家数量排名第八
Ukraine： 34,021 shops，整个ETSY卖家数量排名第十二
由于战争的影响，乌克兰卖家基本上没有办法发出货来了。
同时，由于俄罗斯对36国实施航空禁令，基本上没有飞机飞进飞出俄罗斯。
所以俄罗斯想要发出货出来也比较困难，而且邮费肯定也是爆涨的。
价格也没有任何优势。
所以，这次俄乌战争,ETSY上将减少8万个卖家。
乌克兰排名前的10的卖家大部分休业了、、、
卖家减少，竞争减少！！！
乌克兰排名第三的店铺，已经休业了。。。
乌克兰排名第四的婚纱店铺，已经休业了。。。
乌克兰排名第六的店铺，已经休业了。。。
乌克兰排名第七的店铺，已经休业了。。。
乌克兰排名第九的店铺，已经休业了。。。
2.0 受益的分类是Craft Supplies & Tools
我对俄罗斯销售前300名的店铺进行了统计，发现有166家是从事Craft Supplies & Tools销售的。
45家是从事Art & Collectibles销售，23家是是从事Toys & Games销售。
|
1 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
4,834 |
|
|
|
2 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
4,613 |
|
|
|
5 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
2,420 |
|
|
|
6 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
1,907 |
|
|
|
8 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
1,637 |
|
|
|
11 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
1,552 |
|
|
|
13 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
1,449 |
|
|
|
14 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
1,391 |
|
|
|
17 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
1,283 |
|
|
|
18 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
1,282 |
|
|
|
19 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
1,193 |
|
|
|
25 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
937 |
|
|
|
26 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
921 |
|
|
|
30 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
879 |
|
|
|
31 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
874 |
|
|
|
32 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
845 |
|
|
|
35 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
738 |
|
|
|
38 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
715 |
|
|
|
39 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
714 |
|
|
|
41 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
692 |
|
|
|
42 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
686 |
|
|
|
43 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
673 |
|
|
|
45 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
656 |
|
|
|
47 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
641 |
|
|
|
50 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
607 |
|
|
|
51 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
601 |
|
|
|
52 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
595 |
|
|
|
53 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
589 |
|
|
|
54 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
585 |
|
|
|
55 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
572 |
|
|
|
58 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
552 |
|
|
|
59 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
542 |
|
|
|
60 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
540 |
|
|
|
63 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
536 |
|
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|
64 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
530 |
|
|
|
65 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
528 |
|
|
|
66 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
526 |
|
|
|
69 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
506 |
|
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|
71 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
501 |
|
|
|
72 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
500 |
|
|
|
75 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
497 |
|
|
|
78 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
479 |
|
|
|
79 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
452 |
|
|
|
81 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
444 |
|
|
|
82 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
438 |
|
|
|
85 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
433 |
|
|
|
87 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
432 |
|
|
|
88 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
428 |
|
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|
89 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
428 |
|
|
|
90 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
425 |
|
|
|
91 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
424 |
|
|
|
92 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
423 |
|
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|
93 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
419 |
|
|
|
96 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
409 |
|
|
|
97 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
407 |
|
|
|
98 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
403 |
|
|
|
99 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
403 |
|
|
|
100 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
396 |
|
|
|
103 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
392 |
|
|
|
105 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
390 |
|
|
|
106 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
390 |
|
|
|
107 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
389 |
|
|
|
108 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
387 |
|
|
|
109 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
387 |
|
|
|
110 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
386 |
|
|
|
113 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
385 |
|
|
|
114 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
382 |
|
|
|
115 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
382 |
|
|
|
116 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
381 |
|
|
|
119 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
368 |
|
|
|
120 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
365 |
|
|
|
122 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
363 |
|
|
|
123 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
360 |
|
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|
124 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
360 |
|
|
|
125 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
358 |
|
|
|
127 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
352 |
|
|
|
128 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
347 |
|
|
|
129 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
347 |
|
|
|
131 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
346 |
|
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|
132 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
346 |
|
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|
134 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
341 |
|
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|
136 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
334 |
|
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|
137 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
334 |
|
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|
138 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
333 |
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|
141 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
326 |
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|
142 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
323 |
|
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|
144 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
316 |
|
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|
145 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
314 |
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|
147 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
311 |
|
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|
148 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
310 |
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|
149 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
310 |
|
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|
150 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
309 |
|
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|
152 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
308 |
|
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|
154 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
308 |
|
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|
155 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
305 |
|
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|
157 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
304 |
|
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|
159 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
302 |
|
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|
160 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
301 |
|
|
|
161 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
299 |
|
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|
162 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
299 |
|
|
|
163 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
297 |
|
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|
166 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
293 |
|
|
|
169 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
282 |
|
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|
170 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
280 |
|
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|
174 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
279 |
|
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|
175 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
279 |
|
|
|
178 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
275 |
|
|
|
180 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
272 |
|
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|
181 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
272 |
|
|
|
182 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
270 |
|
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|
183 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
269 |
|
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|
185 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
265 |
|
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|
186 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
264 |
|
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|
187 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
264 |
|
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|
188 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
263 |
|
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|
189 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
263 |
|
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|
190 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
263 |
|
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|
193 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
261 |
|
|
|
196 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
254 |
|
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|
198 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
251 |
|
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|
199 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
248 |
|
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|
201 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
244 |
|
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|
206 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
241 |
|
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|
207 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
235 |
|
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|
208 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
234 |
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|
211 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
232 |
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|
212 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
231 |
|
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|
213 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
231 |
|
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|
215 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
230 |
|
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|
218 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
227 |
|
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|
221 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
226 |
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|
222 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
225 |
|
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|
224 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
223 |
|
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|
225 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
223 |
|
|
|
228 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
223 |
|
|
|
231 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
222 |
|
|
|
232 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
222 |
|
|
|
233 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
221 |
|
|
|
234 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
220 |
|
|
|
236 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
220 |
|
|
|
237 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
218 |
|
|
|
242 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
213 |
|
|
|
244 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
210 |
|
|
|
245 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
210 |
|
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|
250 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
205 |
|
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|
253 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
204 |
|
|
|
258 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
199 |
|
|
|
262 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
197 |
|
|
|
263 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
196 |
|
|
|
264 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
195 |
|
|
|
265 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
195 |
|
|
|
267 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
194 |
|
|
|
269 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
194 |
|
|
|
270 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
194 |
|
|
|
272 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
193 |
|
|
|
273 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
192 |
|
|
|
274 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
191 |
|
|
|
277 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
189 |
|
|
|
278 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
188 |
|
|
|
281 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
184 |
|
|
|
286 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
182 |
|
|
|
287 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
181 |
|
|
|
288 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
181 |
|
|
|
291 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
178 |
|
|
|
293 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
176 |
|
|
|
298 |
Craft Supplies & Tools |
174 |
|
同时，
我对乌克兰销售前300名的店铺进行了统计，发现89家是从事Craft Supplies & Tools销售的。
发现27家是从事Home & Living销售的。
所以得出来，从事Craft Supplies & Tools分类的卖家会明显感觉到，竞争减小，流量上升，订单上升。
3.0 成人用品与针钩市场有缺口
为了进一步了解市场的缺口，我认真的去翻看了一下乌克兰与俄罗斯的前20名大卖家
我发现了俄罗斯主攻的是针钩市场产品市场，而乌克兰是成人用品
像下面这家，乌克兰国家排第12位的店铺也是休业了。
所以，这个需求就会转到别的国家的卖家身上。大家有做这些个市场应该的可以明显感觉到了。
而且乌克兰这个XX业务全球有名气的。
4.0 注意邮费上涨
受俄乌战争影响，全球石油供应，油价正在攀升。
国际基准布伦特原油价格22日达到每桶97.76美元（折合人民币619.7886元）的七年高点。
这个价格肯定会反应到小包价格上来的。
所以，大家定价的时候记得把这个预期价格加上去。
5.0 乌克兰订单停发
如果你遇上有乌克兰的订单，我建议你暂时不要发出。也不要取消，写信告诉他们。
这个货等战争停止才发出。不然发出去他们也会收不到的。
总结：
最后，希望世界和平与稳定
